Subject: -

   

  Topic: Goals

      

  Storyboard: What we seek to achieve


        The Problems

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        1. The invasion of technology

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        2. The evolution of money

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        3. Concentration of wealth

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        4. Acceleration of technological processes

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        5. Energy and Climate Change

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        6. Migrations

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        7. Globalization and Protectionism

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        What we should look for

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  Storyboard: How we develop it


        Strategy to create a System

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        Understand the Mechanisms

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        Use of Models

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        Sorting data

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        Scientific method

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        Model of the Operation of the Company

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        Model of Resources and Economics

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        Model of Customers and the Economy

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        Marketing Model and Purchase Decision

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        Model of Interaction between Economies

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        Strategy of this Documentation

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  Storyboard: How we use it


   

  Topic: Company Model

      

  Storyboard: Abstraction of the Operation


        Description of the Operation of a Company

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        Application to the case of an Airline

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        Modeling of the Operation

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        Modeling of an Airline

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        Structure of the Operation

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        Parameterization of the Model

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        Example Airline: Parameterization of Products

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        Example Airline: Process Parameterization

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        Example Airline: Parameterization of Resources

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        Example Airline: Parameterization of Employees

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        Model Costing

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        Example Airline: Employee Costs

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        Example Airline: Resource Costs

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        Structure in more Complex Operations

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        Example Airline: With complex structure

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        Example Airline: Cost of Employees by Aircraft

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        Example Airline: Resource Costs by Aircraft

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  Storyboard: Human Resources and Capacity


        Economic Sectors

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        NAICS Codes

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        Jobs Profile

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        Association of Jobs to Economic Sectors

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        Consultation NAICS-SOC Association

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        Tool: NAICS-SOC Association

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        Propierties of the Jobs

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        Consultation SOC-ONET Association

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        Tool: SOC-ONET Association

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  Storyboard: Information to collect


        Data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS)

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        Operational Balance, Major Airlines (Form 41 B-1)

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        Operational Balance, Menor Airlines (Form 41 B-1.1)

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        Operational Air Carrier Employment (Form 41 P-1A)

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        Profit and Loss Statements, Mayor Airlines (Form 41 P-1.2)

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        Profit and Loss Statements, Menor Airlines (Form 41 P-1.1)

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        Air Carrier Employees (P10)

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        Fuell Costs (Form 41 P-12A)

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        Aircraft Operating Expenses, Regional Carrier (Form 41 P-5.1)

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        Aircraft Operating Expenses, Large Carrier (Form 41 P-5.2)

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        Operating Expenses, by Objective (Form 41 P-6)

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        Operating Expenses, by Function (Form 41 P-7)

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        Carrier Traffic And Capacity by Service Class (Form 41 T1)

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        Carrier Traffic And Capacity by Aircraft Type (Form 41 T2)

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  Storyboard: Modeling with the Information


        Concept of the Company Model

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      $\sigma_{xy}=\bar{E}((x-E(x))(y-E(y))$  Dependence between two Series

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        Comparison Method

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      $r_{xy}=\displaystyle\frac{\sigma_{xy}}{\sigma_x\sigma_y}$  Correlation

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        Correlation Matrix

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        Tool: Correlation Matrix

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        Way to Analyze the Correlation Matrix

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        Relationship Curve

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        Tool: Relationship Curve

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        Interpretation of Relationship Curves

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        Curves adjustment

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      $y=ax$  Slope

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      $a=\displaystyle\frac{S_{xy}}{S_{xx}}$  Coefficient of the Slope

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      $y=ax+b$  Straight line

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      $a=\displaystyle\frac{NS_{xy}-S_xS_y}{NS_{xx}-S_x^2}$  Coefficient of the Straight Line

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      $b=\displaystyle\frac{S_xS_{xy}-S_{xx}S_y}{NS_{xx}-S_x^2}$  Offset of the Straight Line

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      $y=be^{ax}$  Exponential

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      $a=\displaystyle\frac{NS_{lnxlny}-S_{lnx}S_{lny}}{NS_{lnxlnx}-S_{lnx}^2}$  Exponent of the Power

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      $a=\displaystyle\frac{NS_{xlny}-S_xS_{lny}}{NS_{xx}-S_x^2}$  Coefficient of the Exponential

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      $\ln b=\displaystyle\frac{S_xS_{xlny}-S_{xx}S_{lny}}{NS_{xx}-S_x^2}$  Amplitude of the Exponential

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      $y=bx^a$  Power

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      $\ln b=\displaystyle\frac{S_{lnx}S_{lnxlny}-S_{lnxlnx}S_{lny}}{NS_{lnxlnx}-S_{lnx}^2}$  Amplitude of the Power

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      $R^2=\displaystyle\frac{\displaystyle\sum_n (f(x_n)-\bar{y})^2}{\displaystyle\sum_n (y_n-\bar{y})^2}$  Coefficient of Determination

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  Storyboard: Running the Model


   

  Topic: Economy Model

      

  Storyboard: Abstraction of the Operation


        Economy as a Networked System

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        Matrix I/O and the Cost Structure

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        Matrix I/O and the Customer Profile

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        Matrix I/O and the Balance

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        Price use a Problem

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        Product Volumes

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  Storyboard: Information Available


        Matrix I/O with sufficient detail

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        Operating Costs

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        Tool: Operating Costs

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        Example: Operating Costs in an Airline

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        Sale by Customer

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        Tool: Sales by Client

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        Example: Sale by Customer in Airlines

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        Data according to NAICS

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      $y_k=\displaystyle\sum_i x_i$  Conversion Accounts: Trivial case

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      $y_j=\displaystyle\frac{b_j}{\displaystyle\sum_k b_k} x_i$  Conversion Accounts: Distribution Case

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      $b_n=\displaystyle\frac{a_n}{\displaystyle\sum_k a_k}h_n$  Conversion Accounts: Most Complex Case

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  Storyboard: Modeling with the information


      

  Storyboard: Running the Model


   

  Topic: Marketing Model

      

  Storyboard: Market Potential


        Concept

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        Exploring the Customer's Economic Capacity

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        Exploring how to Model

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        Basis of Market Potential Modeling

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        Example: Number of Cellular Subscriptions

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        Behavior Cell Subscriptions

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        Conclusion: Saturation Level

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        Conclusion: Products according to Saturation Level

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      $\displaystyle\frac{dV}{dt}=\displaystyle\frac{1}{\tau}V+N\displaystyle\frac{dg}{dt}$  Sales Volume

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        Example: Vehicles per 1000 People

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        Conclusion: Transition Values

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      $V(\epsilon_p,n_p)=\displaystyle\frac{V_s}{1+e^{\beta(\epsilon_c+n_p\epsilon_p - \epsilon_t)}}$  Role of Price

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        Example Airlines

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        Characterization of the Saturation Curve

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        Economic Capacity by Airport

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        General Case of Locations

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        Problem of Alternative Airports

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        Potential by Airport

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        Outlook

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  Storyboard: Relate to the Client


        Level of Knowledge

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        Locability

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        Visibility

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        Point of Sale

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        Analysis of Customer Behavior

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      $u=\displaystyle\frac{N_v}{N_c}$  Measure Locability

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      $N_{c,i}=\displaystyle\frac{N_i}{N_0}N_c$  Potential Customers

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      $r=\displaystyle\frac{N_r}{N_v}$  Behavior of a Customer who sees us

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        Location and Visibility of the Customer on the Internet

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        Improving Visibility

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        Example: Location and Visibility in Airlines

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        Visibility of the offer via the web

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        Outlook

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  Storyboard: Product and its Satisfactors


        Concepts

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        Satisfactors

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        Example: Objectives Satisfactors in Airlines

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        Example: Subjective Satisfactors in Airlines

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        Subjective Evaluation

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        Average Temporal Evolution

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      $E_{\omega}(x,t)=\displaystyle\frac{\displaystyle\sum_n \omega_n(t) x(t_n)}{\displaystyle\sum_n \omega_n(t)}$  Average with Exponential Memory

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      $p_i=\displaystyle\frac{p_0}{1+e^{\beta(\epsilon_{p,i}-\epsilon_{v,i})}}$  Modeling of the Purchase Decision

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      $\epsilon_{v,i}=\displaystyle\sum_k c_k s_{k,i}$  Modeling of the Product's Own Value

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      $\displaystyle\sum_k c_k s_{k,i}=\epsilon_{p,i}+\displaystyle\frac{1}{\beta}\ln\left(\displaystyle\frac{p_i}{p_0-p_i}\right)$  Calculation of Satisfactor Values

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      $p_0=\displaystyle\frac{1}{\displaystyle\sum_i \displaystyle\frac{1}{1+e^{\beta (\epsilon_{p,i}-\epsilon_{v,i})}}}$  Need to Normalize

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        Example: Evaluation by Airline and Market

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        Analysis of the Sale Decision

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  Storyboard: Purchase Decision Model


        Evaluación y decisión

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  Storyboard: Running the Model